[vishaw]

This is a article, regarding the geo-political influence of central Asia, which depicts that loosened grip of US is tempting Russia and China to increase their hold on the region. A good read.

Source: Opinion

Russia, China and Central Asia

M.H.Skandari
The geo-political situation in Central Asia and Afghanistan and the new era of China-Russia relations brought new strategic developments in the region. A London-based prominent author Musa Khan Jalalzai says that these developments can influence internal political process in Afghanistan. In his recent article, he pinpointed the future political and military rivalries in Central Asia and Afghanistan as dangerous.

The significance of the Bishkek Summit should not be underestimated. The US military’s presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia has made China and Russia concerned about their interests in the region. The strategic importance of Central Asia for the US is surfacing in areas such as counter-terrorism, narcotic trade, energy production, public health, human rights and good governance. But the failed military strategy of the US in Afghanistan and its pullout from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, it appears that the US has yet to define an integrated and coherent approach to Central Asia.

It is important to bear in mind that the US has not completely withdrawn from the region. However, the US attitude compelled Iran to go with China and Russia. During the SSC summit, President Ahmadinejad asked for the creation of a defence system against Washington’s missile shield. Meanwhile, China, Russia and Central Asia promised greater collaboration in the field of energy.

Russia and China seek to offset US’s influence in Central Asia through enhanced cooperation conducted under the banner of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). While its impact is often exaggerated, the SCO does offer certain benefits to the states of the region, as well as to Moscow and Beijing, that the US can ill-afford to ignore. Iran, Turkey, Russia, China and the US are all vying for influence in the Central Asian region. India has long aspired to establish itself as a global player and the post-9/11 global scenario has provided it with an opportunity to further these aims. Since the end of the Cold War, Central Asia has acquired a reputation as a volatile and unpredictable region. Economic instability, weak civil societies, and repressive political climates have shrouded the post-Soviet states since they got independence eleven years ago.

The current war on terrorism in Afghanistan has given the US a key foothold in establishing its influence in the region. Author Musa Khan Jalalzai in his article mentioned a new military build-up in the region. Russia is China’s largest supplier of weapons. Since the year 2000, China has bought a range of Russian weapons, including fighter aircraft, submarines, and destroyers amounting to an average of $2 billion annually.

To counter the US influence, Russia wants to keep a wide-ranging influence in the former Soviet Republics, which it labels its “near abroad”. In the name of democracy in the region, the US could not succeed in both Afghanistan and Central Asia. Musa Khan Jalalzai, in his recent research paper, has claimed that the Central Asian region is of more importance. The Central Asian countries know that their security interests are threatened by the instability and fragile peace in Afghanistan. As a region, the Central Asian states are threatened by the narrowing of financial and security options and the potential rise of extremism.

There are many future trends to watch out for in Central Asia. First, the reorganisation of the Taliban movement in Afghanistan is neither in the US’s interests nor in Russia’s or China’s. The ultimate failure of the US and NATO efforts, Jalalzai says, to bring stability and security in the region could persuade Russia and China to push for a larger role in Afghanistan. Musa Qala fell to the coalition troops recently while British the prime minister visited Helmand and outlined the UK’s future policy in Afghanistan. Brown knows he will not “defeat the Taliban”, a term for shifting groups of anti-Western Muslim fundamentalists across the Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan crescent. Last year, the British cut a deal with the tribal leaders in Musa Qala that was clearly a failure except insofar as cutting deals is going to be the only exit strategy from this morass.

Russia and China are closely watching the recent political developments in Afghanistan. The new political alliance under former President Rabbani’s leadership may be the beginning of the new Russian era in Afghanistan. In 2006, on his return from Beijing, President Putin made a stop-over in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, to meet senior leaders of Afghanistan’s opposition Northern Alliance, including Burhanuddin Rabbani. There is increasing concern in Russia, Iran and other frontline states that the US has a hidden agenda to be the dominant power in Afghanistan, a strategic crossroad and a gateway to vast Central Asian oil fields.

The Caspian Sea region, to which Afghanistan provides strategic access, harbours approximately 270 billion barrels of oil, and some 20 percent of the world’s proven reserves. It also contains 665 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, approximately one-eighth of the planet’s gas reserves. Beijing is unhappy about the US ties with Taiwan. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and says the island has no right to conduct foreign relations. “We reinforced our mutual support on key issues like Taiwan and Chechnya that concern our vital interests,” Hu said after the talks. In addition to China and Russia, the organisation includes Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. All the countries have Muslim movements that their governments would like to rein in, although these groups often have little in common other than their religion. Russia has been fighting a prolonged battle with the Chechen separatists, some of whom were trained in Afghanistan.

The strategic approaches to Afghanistan by its neighbours are, however, always subject to re-adjustment. No regional state is prepared to allow the other to gain influence in Afghanistan. Moreover, each retains links to client networks that are capable of fractionalising and incapacitating an emerging Afghanistan. China and Russia will remain significant actors in Central Asia, and advancing US interests in this region will become more complicated if Russia and China are ignored.

The convergence with China is still evolving. Though China too has been a victim of jihadi terrorism originating from the same triangle, it prefers not to give open expression to its concerns over the role of other states in fostering it. Yet China’s support for the US-led global struggle against terrorism has been qualified. Beijing has been prepared to share intelligence on terrorist groups and follow terrorist financial flows. China has also been supportive of Pakistan’s decision to cooperate with the US in the global war on terrorism. The backlash against Islamic militancy in the Middle East and South Asia has reached the world’s most populous country. In Western media, China’s role in Central Asia has already been ignored. Kyrgyzstan shares a 533-mile long border with China. China’s growing clout in Central Asia has been quietly developing for years. The US will face a resurgent Russia whose future orientation is uncertain and a rapidly growing China that must be integrated into the international system. Russia has gained economic recovery from a huge quantity of arms sale to a dozen countries.

The writer is from the department of modern diplomacy and international law, University of London

[satish]

It's very informative post Vishaw thank you for this.